Hello, fellow moviegoers!
Well, it’s that time of the year again. The 89th Academy Awards are this Sunday night, and this year's ceremony looks like it could be a lot of fun. Not only is Jimmy Kimmel hosting, but there were also so many great movies that came out this year! So, for the third year in a row, I’m going to give you a list of my picks to take home the Oscars this year! This is just my opinion on who should win the award, who will actually win it, and what might be some potential upsets.
Before we get into this, though, I have a confession to make. I was unable to see all of the Best Picture nominees before I wrote this article. I missed two of them. First of all, I missed Lion, which from what I’ve heard doesn’t have a good chance at winning any awards, so I’m not too upset about that. The big one is the fact that I still have yet to see Fences. Fences has a very good shot at winning several awards Sunday night, but since I haven’t seen the movie yet, I can’t say whether it should or not. I will be watching the movie very soon, and I’ll tweet out my reaction to that, so keep your eye out for that. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 89th Academy Awards
I won’t go in depth for all of the awards, but for the smaller ones here are my predictions:
I believe that La La Land’s sweep of the Oscars this year is going to start in the category for Original Screenplay. The script for this film was one that invoked fun, emotion, and kept the film surprising and entertaining throughout. Though the film’s popularity has waned a bit recently, that’s mostly from mainstream moviegoers (i.e. not the Academy). I believe La La Land should and will win this award. If there were to be an upset in this category, I’d say it’d be from Manchester by the Sea, which also had a very strong screenplay.
Should Win: La La Land
Will Win: La La Land
Upset: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay will be a little bit more interesting than Original Screenplay. I believe the award should go to Arrival. Arrival’s screenplay is a huge part of what makes that movie so great. It has such subtlety to it, and by the end of the film, the whole thing comes together extremely well. You can’t believe some of the things that happen in Arrival, but they work for the movie, and that’s because of the great script behind it.
Though I think Arrival should win, I’m guessing the award will go to Moonlight. Moonlight is a film that is getting a lot of love from critic’s circles around the world, deservedly so. I thought Moonlight was a great movie. It may or may not deserve all of the praise that it is getting, but it was a very powerful movie nonetheless. Moonlight could end up getting a lot of love from the Academy this year, starting with Adapted Screenplay.
Should Win: Arrival
Will Win: Moonlight
The award for Visual Effects this year is one of the few that I would consider a lock. I mean, The Jungle Book came out this year. Is there really anything else to say? Sure, Doctor Strange was crazy to look at, Kubo and the Two Strings took a lot of effort with its claymation, and there was a Star Wars movie this year. But did you see The Jungle Book? Those animals were photo-realistic! Had that movie not come out this year, this might actually be a close race, but The Jungle Book blows all these other films out of the water. No competition here.
Should Win: The Jungle Book
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Upset: Doctor Strange
More La La Land. Surprise! One of the most remarkable things about all of La La Land’s nominations this year was the fact that it was nominated for Original Song TWICE! Two separate songs! Those songs are “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”, and “City of Stars”. One of these songs will win, no doubt about it. Personally, I hope that “Audition” wins, that song holds one of the movie’s biggest moments on its back, and it doesn’t falter at all. It’s a song of pure emotion; it’s a tribute to the people who are brave enough to be stupid and chase their dreams.
Even though there is a lot of love for “Audition”, I believe the award will go to “City of Stars” purely because that’s the song that seems to be being promoted by the filmmakers and the companies behind the film. That’s the song shown on a lot of posters, and that’s the one everyone seems to talk about. So, it’ll probably win the award.
Should Win: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” -La La Land
Will Win: “City of Stars” -La La Land
Upset: “How Far I’ll Go” -Moana
Makeup and Hair
Of all of the categories to cause people to get angry on the internet, it was Makeup and Hair. Really people? In case you haven’t heard, there are many people online getting upset because Suicide Squad was nominated for this award. They think the film shouldn’t be nominated for anything other than a Razzie, but I believe that this nomination was deserved. In fact, I would say that Suicide Squad deserves to win this award! The makeup in this movie was crazy good! Did you even realize that Killer Croc was made with prosthetics? That wasn’t CGI! I don’t think it’ll win just because people don’t want to give Suicide Squad an Oscar. The award will probably go to Star Trek Beyond, which did have great makeup, but it should go to Suicide Squad.
Should Win: Suicide Squad
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Upset: Suicide Squad
Who would’ve thought that the Animated Feature category would be one of the most exciting categories to watch this year? Well, with films such as Zootopia, Moana, and Kubo and the Two Strings all having been released this year, this category suddenly became one to watch. If I had to pick, I’d give the award to Zootopia. That movie was so much more than I expected it to be, and oddly enough I think it’s one that everyone should see. In all honesty though, I have absolutely no clue who is going to win this. It could go to any of those three films, and I could not make a legitimate argument against it. This one is a toss-up.
Should Win: Zootopia
Will Win: Zootopia???
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings
This is the first major category that my prediction is affected by my not having seen Fences. The Best Supporting Actress category this year is pretty stacked, with the likes of Viola Davis, Nicole Kidman, Michelle Williams, and Octavia Spencer nominated. However, I believe the award should go to Naomie Harris for her performance in Moonlight. She was unrecognizable in her role in this movie. Not because of prosthetics or makeup, but because she disappeared into her character. I believe that she deserves the Oscar for this role.
However, if all of the hype is to be believed, this award will undoubtedly go to Viola Davis for her role in Fences. I can’t attest to whether or not that is deserved, but Davis is a great actress so I’m sure it is. Again, I will be watching Fences before the ceremony Sunday night. I’ll tweet out my reaction afterward, so keep your eye out for that.
Should Win: Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Will Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Upset: Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
UPDATE: After seeing Fences, I am further convinced that Viola Davis will win this award, and she definitely should. She was absolutely fantastic in that movie!
The category for Supporting Actor is always a very interesting one to watch. Every year, this category is always jam-packed with great actors. Two years ago it was J.K. Simmons, Mark Ruffalo, and Edward Norton. Last year it was Tom Hardy, Sylvester Stallone, and Mark Ruffalo again (I still disagree with Mark Rylance’s win). This year the category is no different than years past. Nominated this year are the likes of Jeff Bridges, Dev Patel, and Michael Shannon. Though, just like two years ago, this category has a clear winner. Mahershala Ali should and will win this award for his performance in Moonlight. Ali really exploded onto the scene with his talent this year, and he undoubtedly deserves this award.
Should Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Upset: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
The one performance that I would say got snubbed this year was Amy Adams in this category for her role in Arrival. If she had been nominated, I would’ve had a very hard time picking between her and Emma Stone to win. However, she wasn’t nominated, so this year is Emma Stone’s year. Her performance in La La Land was absolutely fantastic. Emma Stone is an amazing actress, and it’s about time that she was given an Oscar. If Birdman hadn’t come out the same year as Boyhood (which Patricia Arquette rightly won for), I’d say that Stone should’ve won for her performance in that movie. She deserves an Oscar, and she'll get it for La La Land.
Should Win: Emma Stone (La La Land) or Amy Adams (Arrival)
Will Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Upset: Natalie Portman (Jackie)
When I wrote my reaction to the nominees of this year’s Oscars, I said that I believed that Casey Affleck would win this award for his performance in Manchester by the Sea. At the time, it was one of the few categories that I considered to be as close to a lock as you could get. However, as time has gone on, there has been a lot of love building for Denzel Washington’s performance in Fences. So much so, that this category has become a two-horse race between these two. I still believe that Casey Affleck should and will win this award, but don’t be surprised if Denzel Washington ends up sneaking in there.
Should Win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Will Win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Upset: Denzel Washington (Fences)
UPDATE: After seeing his performance in Fences, I now believe that Denzel Washington is going to win this award tonight. If it were up to me, I'd still give it to Casey Affleck, but I have a feeling the Academy will lean more towards Denzel.
The category for Best Director is an interesting one this year. Not only did Mel Gibson get nominated after being shunned by Hollywood for many years, but this is one that category could go several directions depending on what wins Best Picture. Personally, I’d give the award to either Damien Chazelle for La La Land or Denis Villeneuve for Arrival. I don’t think Villeneuve has any chance at actually winning, unfortunately, but Chazelle is the frontrunner. However, if La La Land does end up winning Best Picture, don’t be surprised if they end up giving this award to Barry Jenkins for Moonlight. Moonlight has a lot of momentum right now, and Jenkins undoubtedly has a legitimate shot at taking this award home.
Should Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land) or Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Will Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Upset: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
And last but not least, Best Picture. I find it a little funny that the category of Best Picture isn’t the most exciting category at the Oscars this year. This is the big award, but it’s also the one that not a lot of people are talking about. That’s because we all assume that this award will go to La La Land. If you know me, you know that I absolutely loved La La Land, and I do believe that it should win this award. I won’t quite say that it’s a lock, but I’d estimate about a 75% chance that it wins.
That other 25% goes to Moonlight. As I said earlier, Moonlight has a lot of momentum going into the Oscars this year, and I won’t be surprised if it does have a couple of upsets. I don’t think that Moonlight should win Best Picture, but I can’t make an argument against it, other than La La Land was better in my opinion. A Moonlight upset in this category would catch a lot of people off guard, and well, the Oscars like to put on a show, so it might actually happen.
I do want to take a second and send a little love Arrival’s way. Arrival was nominated for eight Oscars, but unfortunately, I don’t think it’ll win any major ones. There is a small part of me that would love to see an Arrival upset for Best Picture, and I think it would be well deserved. This movie was #5 on my Top Ten of 2016 list when I made it, however, if I were to make that list now, it might move all the way up to #3. Every time I watch Arrival, I love it even more. It’s a brilliant movie, and if you haven’t seen it, you should definitely go check it out.
Should Win: La La Land or Arrival
Will Win: La La Land
So how excited are you for the Oscars this Sunday night? Who do you want to win? Who do you think will win? Let me know by commenting on this post! Also, if you enjoyed this article, share it on Facebook and Twitter. It really helps! Don't forget, I post every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, so check back then for more movie reviews and miscellaneous movie thoughts!
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